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Share prices

16/11/2020

SHARE PRICES AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 13 November 2020. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — A SHOT IN THE ARM

One way or another, coronavirus dominated the investment agenda in most developed markets, obviously led by America. And amazingly, an upbeat mood was to the fore. Pfizer’s announcement that it had created the first viable vaccine against Covid-19 got punters briefly cheering in the aisles. However, optimism grew cautious and intermittent as the week progressed, simply because the global pandemic’s second-wave infection rate and death toll is noticeably worsening. 

Leading indices rose in response, but to levels much lower than the previous week’s applause for the US election outcome. Wall Street’s blue-chip S&P 500 flip-flopped through five sessions, finishing with just a 2.2% weekly advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P MidCap 400 were firmer, because they contain a swathe of pharmaceutical companies associated with vaccine development among their headline listings, finishing on respective 4.1% and 4.3% gains. American powersport stocks were erratic, swerving all over the place.              

HOG-OMETER — STEERING DEFECT?

Contrarian volatility was initially evident in Hog-ometer swings. As US market indices soared upwards on Monday’s vaccine news, Harley-Davidson went the other way with a 1.4% decline. And then while those indices fell back on Tuesday, its share price suddenly climbed by 4.7%. This phenomenon was reversed on Wednesday. The S&P 500 put on 0.8% and Harley sank by 1.1%. Thursday produced alignment, the S&P and Harley respectively losing 1% and 2.2%. They flipped in unison on Friday too, the former 1.4% up and the Hog-ometer adding a useful 4.6%. The resultant closing price for Harley was just 30 cents below its short-lived quarterly results day spike on 27 October and represented only a second visit to 35-buck ascendancy since February. The shape of things to come? We shall see…                   

Currency: dollar

Price

Week

Month

Harley-Davidson

35.10

+4.5%

+22.9%

Polaris Industries

93.21

-4.6%

-3%

Textron

43.53

+12.1%

+20%

EUROPE — STIFFENING RESOLVE 

Desperately eager for vaccination, European investors welcomed Pfizer’s chance to make even more money out of Covid-19 than it did from Viagra. Leading indices on our side of the pond shrugged off erectile problems. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax stiffened by 4.8%. However, the sales priapism of German automotive giants in their cash-cow Chinese market was compounding confidence. For a second consecutive week, Volkswagen and BMW shares went ballistic.         

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

BMW

70.63

+11%

+12.4%

Volkswagen

158.50

+10.1%

+8.5%

Pierer Mobility

52.50

+1%

+4%

Italy, almost on the verge of another nationwide lockdown with much of its northern industrial heartland around Milan already declared a Covid-rampant “red zone”, also grasped the vaccine straw with gusto… The Borsa Italiana’s MIB index in Milan rose by 6.2% — exactly matched by Piaggio, also boasting a second week of strong advances. An additional positive factor right across major manufacturing and exporting nations in Europe were signals of soon-to-be-restored friendship and cooperation from US President-Elect Joe Biden.          

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

Piaggio Group

2.56

+6.2%

+7.6%

Energica Motor

1.70

-2.3%

+9.6%

JAPAN — FREE TRADE BECKONS 

Biden also got on the phone to Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga, to reassure him that Trump’s viciously mercantile attitude to US-Japan relations will soon become ancient history, and status as close allies would be restored. At the same time, Suga was on the verge of signing the world’s biggest free trade deal, the RCEP agreement spanning 15 Asia-Pacific countries. Taken together, these influences bolstered investor sentiment and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index added 4.4%.

All four indigenous motorcycle manufacturers climbed onto this joyful bandwagon. Yamaha’s share price improvement towered over the rest, thanks to nine-monthly results released on Monday, which had mercifully stayed clear of red ink. Honda got a strong benefit too from a half-year statement issued on the previous Friday, showing rapid recovery for profits in its key bike division.                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Currency: yen

Price

Week

Month

Honda

2914

+12.5%

+15.1%

Yamaha

1929

+26.1%

+28%

Suzuki

5174

+3.8%

+12.2%

Kawasaki

1541

+11.4%

+20.3%

INDIA — DIWALI PARTY TIME

The final countdown to Diwali’s Festival of Lights, which officially kicked off on Thursday, overwhelmed everything else in India. Despite inevitably thinner trading activity as the week’s festivities progressed, Mumbai’s BSE Sensex 30 stock index put on 3.7%.           

Among major Indian bike producers, Royal Enfield parent Eicher got the biggest lift, following the delayed but very well-received launch of its new 350cc Meteor range — accompanied by a promise of many more new models to come in quick succession. A 650 twin Harleyesque cruiser is apparently imminent.           

Currency: rupee

Price

Week

Month

Hero MotoCorp

3128.90

+6.2%

-6.5%

Bajaj Auto

3040.75

+2.1%

-0.1%

TVS Motor

477.80      

-0.4%

+3.1%

Eicher Motors

2514.60

+17.6%

+10.8%

Mahindra

629.85

+2.6%

+3.8%

CHINA — FEAR GAUGE CRANKED UP

Chinese leader Xi Jinping eventually managed to congratulate Joe Biden on his election victory, after a period of measured silence. But China was clearly rattled by the next US President failing to make overtures relating to Trump’s trade warfare stand-off. Shanghai’s SSE Composite was the only leading index globally to close negative — albeit by a marginal 0.1%. Our BDN Ten monitor of listed Chinese motorcycle manufacturers fared considerably worse, losing 1.5%.              

Currency: yuan

Price

Week

Month

Qianjiang

28.79

-3.3%

+24.4%

Zongshen

8.08

-3.1%

-2.7%

Sundiro

3.03

+6.7%

-17%

CETC Energy    

6.12

+2.2%

+1.7%

Lifan

5.28

-1.5%

-5%

Loncin

3.99

-0.5%

+1.3%

Linhai

6.98

+1.3%

N/A

Guangzhou Auto

12.55

-5.9%

+23.9%

CFMoto

167.51

-3.2%

+8.8%

 

Currency: HK dollar

Price

Week

Month

Jianshe

4.37

-7.8%

-6%