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Share prices

09/11/2020

A snapshot of bike and ATV industry share performance across key manufacturers and major global markets at the trading week closure on Friday 6 November 2020. BDN financial editor Roger Willis reports.

USA — WIN/WIN ELECTION RESULT

The US Presidential and Congressional election outcomes, abetted by more indicators of economic resurgence, ran in parallel to give New York markets their biggest boost for some time. Analysts noted a pair of conflicting yet complementary influences on strengthened investor sentiment. 

On one hand, Trump’s defeat should eventually put an end to the disruptive tit-for-tat tariff wars he had initiated, so these barriers will crumble and globally trading American manufacturers will boom. And on the other, the Biden camp’s failure to capture both Houses of Congress definitively will turn “Sleepy Joe” into a lame-duck President, scuppered by Republican obstructionism in the Senate at every turn. Heavier corporate taxation, or the risk of regulatory interference on the bucaneering tech sector, are therefore crossed off any legislative agenda.                     

In response, Wall Street stock indices went ballistic. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average respectively soared to finish 7.3% and 6.7% up. The S&P MidCap 400 also added 6.7%. Among biker-related stocks, Polaris and Textron prospered in line with overall market optimism. However, Harley-Davidson lagged behind that curve.              

HOG-OMETER — TIMID DECISIONS

Harley-Davidson’s hangover from its results week left investors trying to decide whether the company had indeed been polishing too hard. So most Hog-ometer ticks following the previous Friday’s single-session negative conclusion were tentative. On Monday, the share price sneaked back just above the 33-buck mark, thanks to a thin 0.5% rise. Tuesday was a little bit firmer, 0.9% up. But then Wednesday wiped out slightly more than both of those gains with a 1.6% decline. Thursday went the other way, a 3.1% increase equating to exactly one whole dollar. Finally, Friday stole 21 cents of that largesse, falling by 0.6%. The sum total seriously underperformed S&P’s MidCap index.                 

Currency: dollar

Price

Week

Month

Harley-Davidson

33.60

+2.2%

+19.9%

Polaris Industries

97.74

+7.6%

-2.1%

Textron

38.83

+8.5%

+5.6%

EUROPE — SWINGS HIGH 

Buoyed by the prospect of Trump’s likely defeat and mounting evidence indicating recovery for Europe’s crucial automotive sector, pan-European investor confidence grew in spades, shrugging off the previous week’s abject Covid-infected gloom. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax index rose by 8%, regaining almost all of those losses.            

Both Volkswagen and BMW were duly rewarded for their encouraging nine-monthly results this time around. The latter’s Motorrad division reportedly achieved an even greater Q3 bounce-back than the former’s Ducati subsidiary. And both companies are beneficiaries of rip-snortin’ car sales in the vast and lucrative Chinese market.         

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

BMW

63.62

+8.2%

-1.3%

Volkswagen

143.90

+6.8%

-1.9%

Pierer Mobility

52.00

+2%

+2%

Italy’s mood flipped with equal vigour. The Borsa Italiana’s MIB index in Milan stacked on an impressive 9.7%, out-pacing all major indices worldwide. Piaggio, which had narrowly escaped punishment in the previous week owing to its own promising nine-monthly results, continued to accrue value. Energica’s extraordinary sparkiness had a smell of aberration, though, probably associated with some canny speculator stake-building while its shares were still in the bargain zone.          

Currency: euro

Price

Week

Month

Piaggio Group

2.41

+3%

-2%

Energica Motor

1.74

+27%

+8.1%

JAPAN — RISING SUN RETURNS 

The welcome political demise of Donald Trump was celebrated in Japan too, during a four-session week shortened by Culture Day on 3 November. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index grew by 5.9% and all four indigenous motorcycle manufacturers reversed previous weekly losses in style. Fiscal half-year (April-September) results announcements showing various degrees of Q2 recovery from three of them — Kawasaki, Suzuki and Honda — would have been a contributory factor. Honda is the only one to have increased profitability rather than reduced losses. But it released figures too late on Friday morning to have much impact. Yamaha’s nine-monthly data is imminent.                                                                        

Currency: yen

Price

Week

Month

Honda

2589.5

+6.3%

+0.3%

Yamaha

1530

+3.2%

-5.1%

Suzuki

4983

+11.8%

+11.4%

Kawasaki

1383

+11.5%

-1.4%

INDIA — GIFT WRAPPED

Entirely different themes produced a similar upbeat effect in India, headed up by record consumer profligacy in the final month before Diwali’s Xmas-style Festival of Lights. Mumbai’s BSE Sensex 30 stock index reacted in time-honoured fashion by stacking on 5.8%. Leading biker shares were all positive.                

October’s motorcycle sales figures explained why. For example, Norton parent TVS was 24% up to 382,121 bikes. And Bajaj boasted a 10.5% increase to 512,038 — although nearly half of those were exports. Yamaha’s unlisted Indian subsidiary was 30.6% higher on 60,176. Only Royal Enfield let the side down, falling by 7% to 66,891. This was due to the late appearance of its new 350cc Meteor, which has completely missed the Diwali gravy train. Fortunately, the Meteor’s behind-schedule launch during the past week attracted massive media attention, helping to bolster Eicher’s share price.           

Currency: rupee

Price

Week

Month

Hero MotoCorp

2945.45

+5.2%

-11.5%

Bajaj Auto

2977.40

+3.1%

-2.7%

TVS Motor

479.85      

+5.3%

+1.8%

Eicher Motors

2139.05

+2.6%

-3.6%

Mahindra

613.60

+3.3%

-3.1%

CHINA — INSCRUTABLE AS EVER

No doubt that Chinese President Xi Jinping was discreetly sniggering behind his hand at Trump’s fate. And China’s stock markets took the news in their stride. The SSE Composite index in Shanghai rose by a relatively tame 2.7%. Eight of the ten listed motorcycle producers in China were positive. But the real oddity was a very sharp loss for Honda JV affiliate Sundiro. Honda’s bike sales volume in China climbed by 18.1% to 608,000 in the April-September period, a fact revealed during the past week. On a monthly basis, the other JV partner Wuyang Honda’s parent Guangzhou Auto is doing very well, 37.3% up. So why is Sundiro 22% down? A mystery.             

Currency: yuan

Price

Week

Month

Qianjiang

29.75

+2.9%

+23.3%

Zongshen

8.34

+5.3%

-0.2%

Sundiro

2.84

-13.9%

-22%

CETC Energy    

5.99

+2.7%

+0.5%

Lifan

5.36

+4.3%

-8.4%

Loncin

4.01

+5.5%

+3.6%

Linhai

6.89

+0.7%

+0.9%

Guangzhou Auto

13.33

-0.7%

+37.3%

CFMoto

172.96

+2%

+28.1%

Currency: HK dollar

Price

Week

Month

Jianshe

4.74

+1.3%

+1.7%